niceguytx
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8/23/2008 10:13:57 AM
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We need energy independence and better anti-trust leadership.
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ccf_jeff
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8/22/2008 8:32:47 PM
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I think the speculators can influence the futures market quite a bit, but the spot price less so and only for a limited time. The fundamentals of supply and demand will always win out in the end.
I also think the run up in the price of fuels is about a lot more than some speculators going off the deep end. Worldwide demand has been going up even as demand in the industrialized world slowed its increase and eventually dipped slightly (~ 2.5% I believe) just as worldwide production seems to have at least temporarily peaked and even dropped slightly from the all time high in December of 2005. The falling value of the dollar made things worse and that is what really caused the speculators to start buying up commodities such as oil.
They wanted to buy hard assets, preferably ones that would increase in value though even ones that just hold their value are better than a depreciating asset like the dollar had been.
The bottom line is that this problem isn't going to just go away on its own, nor will everything just go back to "normal" if only the speculators can be reigned in. We need to develop viable alternative energy sources.
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djgunrunner
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8/22/2008 5:39:48 PM
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Don't you just have to wonder how many speculators are working with directions for opec?
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JACKATOA
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Raleigh
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8/22/2008 3:03:49 PM
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Kennedy's and many environmentalists want to tout their greenness when it benefits them in the polls, otherwise they're against it. They don't want to allow wind for power, but what happens every winter in the Northeast? Heating oil demand because they won't modernize jacks up all oil costs. Get on wind/get off heating oil. But Kennedy is worried about it affecting his view or sailing.
Pelosi's tactics are recent and easy to research, but here you are Levi, and listen to Dave and RT.
Actually McCain's (and Paris Hilton's :) approach on an all of the above policy that is balanced makes the most sense. I don't care who it is, or what their affiliation is, we must stop the speculators, and we must embrace all forms of energy and drive innovation to overcome the situation we're all in now. Republicans AND Democrats are both responsible, so I'm on the side of us, the people, Americans, that want to see common sense and logic deployed, not political games and positioning for their own interests and games.
Kennedy, Walter Cronkite oppose Nantucket Wind Farm
RFK Jr. says no to wind farms because it will "Mar" the Seascape, and privatize common land?
Kennedy faces fight on Cape Wind
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no1doc
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8/22/2008 1:17:12 PM
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Oct08 Nymex CL futures - crude is down $5.47 at last tick. 2:11 PM
Do the "speculators" receive credit for the drop?
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dyeh
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8/22/2008 10:41:07 AM
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LeoStraussLives:
This time it is you who misses the point. The point is empowerment. While the Indians were being repressed by the British, it took a man with vision and internal fortitude to make a choice and take action, a man by the name of Gandhi.
My point is, some people take action, and some people just complain. It's a choice. I suppose there are those who chose neither. I trust that you agree with me that chosing action is much more effective than sitting around complaining, if indeed you at least agree with me enough to teach your kids to rise above the system.
I have no idea how many houses McCain has, nor why he can not remember. I do know that I chose to take action, save and invest to pay off my own house. I chose to focus on things I can control, rather than dissipate my energies on worrying about people and events I can not control.
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tdn117
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8/22/2008 10:36:53 AM
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LeoStraussLives -
You're not playing "my game?" Look - maybe I'm wasting YOUR time, but to say I'm "wasting everyone elses time?" Jeez man, it's a forum. Maybe you don't mean to come across as a pompous arse . . .
We are all entitled to our own opinions / beliefs. However, we are not entitled to our own facts. I thought you were stating as fact something I would consider an opinion / your belief. This opinion / belief may even be held by others, but that doesn't make it fact. So go ahead, provide information on the oil company "monopolies" or the Taliban meeting with Texas government officials in 1999 or Phil Gramm, etc. Then, please tell us all how this is related to the ALLEGED manipulation that's going on in the oil markets today. Then everyone can form their own opinion (not fact) on who's wasting everyone else's time.
My guess is your sources won't include the Wall Street Journal . . .
Talk about playing games . . .
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LeoStraussLives
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8/22/2008 10:26:42 AM
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Dyeh
Don't worry about me. My kids are not taught that the system will bring them down. They are taught to rise above it.
But I take it your advice to blacks in the 60's would have been, stop complaing about harsh treatment. Or the poor people in third world countries should just quit griping. That's ok- I understand your way of thinking. I am sure you have everything you want. I am sure McCain would tell you that he has so many houses because he does not complain.
But the system is broken- we will have to agree to disagree that it is. But I will continie to say it is broken regardless of whether it bothers those that if truly benefits.
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dyeh
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8/22/2008 10:19:42 AM
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LeoStraussLives:
In Robert Kiyosaki's book "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" (yes, yes, I'm aware of all the controversey), Kiyosaki contrasts many of the thinking habits of the "Rich Dad" vs the "Poor Dad." Your comment reminds me of a few:
The Poor Dad says to his kids: "It is because of you that we are not rich."
The Rich Dad says to his kids: "It is because of you that we MUST become rich."
(I take that to mean life is about choices, choices in income stream allocation and growing alternative income sources, to name a couple)
"An asset will feed you. A liability will eat you."
"A house is an asset --- for the bank." (I.e. it is a liability to you, stop paying mortgage/property taxes and see how quickly it will eat you. Ditto for your SUV.)
The Poor Dad says "We can't afford it."
The Rich Dad asks "How can we afford it?"
(I take this to mean that 'poor dads' automatically shut off their minds from possibilities and opportunities with stale aphorisms of complacency, whereas 'rich dads' open up their minds by asking relavent questions and sparking motivation)
All in all, I suggest at least paper trading (costs nothing! Free quotes online!) to anyone who is new to, and interested in the markets. If you can't make it as a paper trader, at least you didn't blow an account. But if you do make it, there are so many ways you can raise the money to do it for real, if you're motivated enough.
As Randy Pausch states in his "Last Lecture": Stone walls are there to keep the riffraff away, and make sure you want it enough. If you really want it, you will find a way around the stone wall.
$2000 is not a large stone wall, in the grand scheme of things. You found a way to afford that SUV, and ways to feed and clothe and plan for the future of your 4 kids. If you want it enough, you will find a way to get $2000 to start sticking it to the Man and legally stealing hedge funds' dough by out-trading them on your own terms in your deftly piloted PT boat.
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LeoStraussLives
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8/22/2008 10:19:05 AM
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It's the deregulation and it started with deregulating the market. There were laws passed in the early 80's, early 90's and 2000 that deregulated much of the commodities (and other ) markets. This is the deregulation model.
In the past, people were not allowed to "speculate" on things like oil because oil was a commodity that influenced our standard of living.
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no1doc
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8/22/2008 10:14:18 AM
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LeoStraussLives, tell me more about the Reagan system of commodity trading that needs to be fixed. I never heard of this system
Oct08 Nymex CL is down $3.06 at last tick.
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LeoStraussLives
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8/22/2008 10:05:36 AM
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Tdn of course you would. I am not playing your game though. I know where you stand. There is proof that the oil company monoloies purposely limit refining, there is proof that the Taliban met with Texas government officials in 1999, there is proof that Enron (Phill Gramm and his wife's favorite company) manipulated markets in California. It is all out there.
I will make you a deal, if I can supply you this informatio, would you admit on this forum you were wrong? Because otherwise you are just wasting mine and everyone elses time.
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357revo
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8/22/2008 10:05:33 AM
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Apparently, the msnbc posting of this article got pulled. The Washington Post article is available to registered readers, and it doesn't cost anything to get registered.
A Few Speculators Dominate Vast Market for Oil Trading
As for the article itself, the little snippet we have here misrepresents what the author of the article did. Yes, the CFTC found the information about Vitol, but considered it inconsequential. The Wash Post "reporter" ginned up this into a big conspiracy, which supports the Democrat party line that speculators are controlling the market price of oil.
Reading the article in its entirety, it seems that this is much ado about nothing. So Vitol was not labeled as a "speculator". Big deal. The function of Vitol was still to connect suppliers with users of oil, and they apparently perform that function to the satisfaction of both sides.
How many firms are there in the market with the resources to control 10% of the market? With all the day traders put together, do they amount to the capacity of a single one of these large firms? I get the impression that the market is driven by the big firms, with the day traders doing there thing on the edges, without significantly affecting prices one way of the other.
Vitol serves the important function of getting needed oil to its clients, just as a handful of other big firms are doing for their clientele.
An analogy would be a herd of 10 to 20 bears picking berries as they ripen, with thousands of flies [the day traders] fighting over the ones the big guys missed. When push comes to shove, its the interaction of those bears that sets the price of oil, not the flies.
The CFTC is right. No big deal.
Of course, the Democrats in Congress want to blame the rise in oil prices on those EEEEvillll speculators, and this article plays into that mindset. Is anyone surprised that the Washington Post has produced a story that feeds into the Democrat story line???
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tdn117
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8/22/2008 10:01:58 AM
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LeoStraussLives -
Seculating ISN'T that simple. That was my point. And I don't get the "mad gunman in the mall" analogy. What does that have to do with speculators?
You say it is "possible to manipulate the market and people are doing it." You also said "some people in power use [a broken system] to get rich at other's expense." Those are allegations on your part - not statements of fact. I would need to see documented evidence of this manipulation before I would ever come close to accepting it as fact in an Email message forum.
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LeoStraussLives
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8/22/2008 9:58:11 AM
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Come on Dyeh- I was almost with you till that last one. I drive an SUV. I have 4 kids. We have to get around.
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LeoStraussLives
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8/22/2008 9:56:58 AM
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Dyeh
I agree with your first statement and if you read my posts I never said anything bad about the speculators themselves. I speculate in the market too and until recently I did ok.
The commodities trading system is a broken system and some people in power use it to get rich at others expense. The system needs to be fixed and it is the Reagan system that needs to be fixed.
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dyeh
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8/22/2008 9:54:35 AM
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As for the $2000 minimum required to open up a brokerage account to either short a commodity or buy puts, I figure this way: If a complainer can afford to buy an SUV, that same complainer can afford $2000. Depends where they put their priorities. Me, I drive a used hybrid, because I'd rather put money into assets (things that can (potentially) give me money) rather than consumables (things that can only depreciate/get destroyed). Chosing an SUV is a limbic choice, whereas choosing a more reasonable car and investing the difference is an empowering choice.
We consume gas. Once we use it, it's gone. That's one reason I'm on gasbuddy.
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dyeh
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8/22/2008 9:49:34 AM
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LeoStraussLives:
My last comment about the complainers was not aimed at you, my apologies if it was misconstrued that way. Perhaps as an individual trader I take umbrage at all the unjustified negative comments lay people on this board lump on 'speculators.' Kind of like how some men tend to take it personally when some women say blanket statements like "All men are scum."
I just want to make it clear that 1) 'speculation' is hard work. Most people lose money in the markets. I take umbrage at careless comments that imply otherwise. Kind of like people saying "It's so easy being a doctor, why do they make so much money?!?" and 2) just like how there's a misconception that speculation is easy, there's also a misconception that institutional traders can easily 'manipulate' the markets. Maybe Vitol did, maybe it didn't. To me it's clear that they did lose _Some_ money, looking at the charts and extracting from the information from the article.
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LeoStraussLives
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8/22/2008 9:23:06 AM
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Dyeh
It is not about moaning and complaining. Again, you miss the point. It is not simple for people who don't have loads of money to do it. That's why the government used to look out for the little guy. We don't have the power. You can't short a stock much less a commodity without at least $2,000 so how many people do you think can play this game?
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dyeh
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8/22/2008 9:20:31 AM
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"CFTC data show that at the end of July, just four swap dealers held one-third of all NYMEX oil contracts that bet prices would increase."
Look at the chart of crude oil. It peaked in the first half of July. These 'swap dealers' were left holding the bag when oil started tanking!
Let's face it, if it's easy to speculate, you'd be a fool not to. The fact that you instead spend time moaning and groaning and bellyaching on this board tells me you agree with me, and you're just jealous that maybe someone out there might be actually doing something, unlike you.
Anyone can open up a brokerage account and start trading. If you really want to stick it to them, legally steal their money by trading it away from them.
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LeoStraussLives
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8/22/2008 9:18:05 AM
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Tdn
It isn't that simple. It is possible to manipulate the market and people are doing it. And even if they are nuts for doing it, it still hurts everyone when they do it.
Like a mad gunmman in a mall. Yes he is nuts and yes he risks his own life but he also poses a threat to everyone.
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LeoStraussLives
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8/22/2008 9:15:32 AM
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Dyeh
I never called it a conspiracy. It's poor laws that are benefitting a few people at everyone else's expense. The Reagan de-regulation era has had a tendency to do that. Yes- just so everyone knows, Clinton was also at fault but that is because he went along with the Reagan mantras. He shoudl heva worked to get us back to the FDR form of government. It also had problems but it needed to be tweaked, not dumped.
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gasman50
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8/22/2008 9:14:29 AM
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We can produce our way to true independence!
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flatcoatfun
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8/22/2008 9:13:38 AM
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So the swiss really run the world!!!
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tdn117
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8/22/2008 9:13:07 AM
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Typical [p]MSNBC drivel . . . [sorry - guess the source was the WaPo]
Let's try speculating and see if we can figure it out for ourselves without pMSNBC trying to cloud the picture.
There is a company that owns gas stations in St. Cloud, Minnesota, where you can buy gas at a price that day and use the gas in the future. Let's say I buy $1,000 worth of gas today at $4.00 / gallon. That would be almost 250 gallons. I swipe my card at the pump and the gallons on the card go down as I refill my tank.
Now, if the price goes up, I'm a friggin' genious because I locked in my price at $4.00 / gal. But if the price goes down in the future like it has lately - say to $3.00 / gallon - I'm stuck with 250 gallons I bought too high. That same $1,000 would have bought me 333 gallons had I not locked in!
It's just not as sinister (or simple) as pMSNBC and other media would have you believe. If it were simple, everyone would be doing it (be my guest!)
I personally think commodities speculators are nuts. It's got to be stressful watching the price changes after you've made your speulative bet. I'll stick playing catch in the backyard with live hand grenades - less stress . . .
[Edited by: tdn117 at 8/22/2008 11:16:32 AM EST]
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NavyEOD
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8/22/2008 9:12:38 AM
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Take out the speculators and see how low the barrel can really go.
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niceguytx
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8/22/2008 9:12:24 AM
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Where is the US Anti-trust department when Exxon and Mobil and a number of other oil companies merged.
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LaCajunDJ
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8/22/2008 9:11:49 AM
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Old news!!! Get on with some real & current news!
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USAFA82
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Hopefully they got totally screwed when the market tanked.
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dyeh
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8/22/2008 9:08:01 AM
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LeoStraussLives:
We don't know. At least, I certainly don't know. They may have held on until AFTER the crash started, and then they couldn't unload as quickly as, say, Turtle traders. Then they'd be in deep doodoo.
And if they kept holding their contracts, well, they lost even more. Even if they were covered and could deliver the underlying.
Let's say that yes, they were the ones who STARTED the sell off. Do you think they were the only large holders of contracts? If you believe in conspiracy theories, I guess a whole bunch of hedge funds could band together and agree to sell off at the same time. Unlikely; funds tend to keep in-house trades/positions/strategies top secret, and fight the battlefield of the markets as if everyone else was out to get them.
This is where the individual trader has the edge. If Vitol, or ANY large fund starts selling large amounts, we can dodge in and out a lot more quickly in our little PT boats than they can in their large, clunky battleships. Sure, one blast can kill us, but we're a lot less likely to take a blast than they are. Their only hope is to keep withstanding blasts and still manage to survive.
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Kthyme
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8/22/2008 9:07:36 AM
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Right on...Right on...ssect8!!!
Drill Here...Drill Now!!!
;)
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aalix
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8/22/2008 9:05:30 AM
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Let's keep this article around for awhile to remind us that speculators indeed can cause a price run-up. The Commodities Futures Trading Commission in the past have denied several times that speculators were causing the price run-up.
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DarthDadJr
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There is an excellent article about this in the Washington Post, if you are interested in reading more on it: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/20/AR2008082003898.html
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ssect8
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8/22/2008 8:57:40 AM
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So Vitol is Swiss so much for the democrats stupid half-baked idea to try and control speculation. I do recall the Swiss don't have to follow our laws. We need to get off our dependency on foreign oil once and for all. Nuclear is the way to go, not useless wind power
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Lenguado
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Blah, blah, blah, blah....
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LeoStraussLives
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8/22/2008 8:55:43 AM
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Dyeh
They owned the oil in July. Don't you think they dumped a lot of it since then and they may have actually been making money from shorting it.
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dyeh
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8/22/2008 8:53:07 AM
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Technically, the whole market is speculation.
And if you know anything about hedge funds and mutual funds, funds that are so big and hold such a large percentage of any stock or commodity are actually at a DISadvantage.
Think about it. If you were, say, Vanguard, and hold, say, 10% of all the CSCO stock, and you had to dump it, what do you think would happen to the market? That's right, CSCO would tank, and you'd get out at a very unfavorable price.
Me, as an individual retail investor, can set a stop loss on my stock and protect my gains/minimize my losses. The big funds can not. That's one reason why I've stopped investing in mutual funds.
The guys at Vitol are probably nursing mega financial wounds with the latest 25% dip in oil prices, depending on how leveraged they are.
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ramshot412
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8/22/2008 8:52:39 AM
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There you go, if you can manipulate the supply you can cahnge the price...
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LeoStraussLives
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Slarty
Usage is down but and oil rises anyway. The point of the article is, gas will rise at the whim of a few players.
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CheapoBob
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8/22/2008 8:51:32 AM
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crooked market
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slarttybartfast
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8/22/2008 8:51:01 AM
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I would like to see folks not buying gas ... at least not using their vehicles except where needed... we can put the screws to the speculators..
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bejamaluthopa
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8/22/2008 8:48:00 AM
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prosecute these speculators as world economy terrorist!
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LeoStraussLives
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Don20
That may work buit the original ones that were allowed to hedge (major manufacturers) would be hurt by this if it were done across the board.
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oncotime
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names?
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SLAPSHOT351
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Coincedently the world bank is also in switzerland. Maybe the conspericy theorists are right after all about who runs the world.
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gasngogoGA
Sophomore Author
Atlanta
Posts:238
Points:58,630
Joined:Aug 2008
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Message Posted:
8/22/2008 8:40:31 AM
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I'm riding my bike to the gas station. Might need to ride the riding lawn mower to work next week. I think it gets better mileage than my 4Runner.
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Gerund1
Champion Author
Toronto
Posts:1,147
Points:828,105
Joined:Apr 2003
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Message Posted:
8/22/2008 8:38:44 AM
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First they say that speculators have a large effect on the oil market, then they say that speculators have little or no effect, then speculators have some effect!!!!!>>??? So what is the real story here?? Personally my belief is that this news feed is closer to the truth. A few greedy guts have enough leverage to affect the market to the detriment of consumers.
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throttle
Champion Author
Maryland
Posts:4,583
Points:1,021,825
Joined:Jul 2004
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Message Posted:
8/22/2008 8:36:12 AM
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Who cares who they are. Conserve!
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esquared
Champion Author
Oklahoma City
Posts:1,401
Points:629,975
Joined:Jan 2006
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Message Posted:
8/22/2008 8:35:39 AM
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With apologies to Shakespeare's "Henry VI": "The first thing we do, let's kill all the speculators."
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Dennis783
Champion Author
Wisconsin
Posts:5,603
Points:1,122,945
Joined:Sep 2005
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Message Posted:
8/22/2008 8:34:20 AM
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... and manipulate the price
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